I rarely make predictions, because I'm rarely correct when I predict things. So, this is more about examining possibilities than really making a prediction.
Back in 2016 one of the worst people to ever run for president in the history of American Presidents, somehow managed to defeat an absurdly large number of primary opponents and become the GOP candidate. The response from the DFL was to run someone who is arguably another of the worst people to ever run for president. Given a truly horrible pair of options, Trump managed to win the election.
Fast forward to 2019. The DFL has decided that having a legion of primary candidates worked so well for the GOP that they should try that again. So far there seems to be a rush toward the left from virtually everyone in the race. There is literally no one in the field who can really be identified as "center left". Two years ago I would have said that Booker was, and he would have been a difficult challenger to any GOP candidate.
Now, Trump's politics are weird. On some things he's pretty conservative, on others he's not particularly conservative. But, by and large, many of the things that affect people's vote are doing pretty well ("It's the economy, stupid.").
So, you'd think that a winning strategy for the DFL would be to run a candidate that is center/center-left. Someone who runs on maintaining the economic direction, isn't rabidly pro-abortion, who can craft an immigration policy that is compassionate/fair/just, yet respects the need for border security. Someone who realizes that working across the aisle in the interest of American citizens is a good thing. Think Truman or Kennedy. Hell, find a Bill Clinton without the moral baggage. You'd think that someone like that could beat one of the worst human beings to ever hold the office, wouldn't you?
Instead, I think we'll see political fratricide, a rush to out liberal/socialist the others. Personal attacks, character flaws, and some general weirdness.
I know that many on the left see Trump as an "extreme, radical, fringe" conservative. Someone on the extreme right side of the political spectrum. Personally, I don't see that, but for the purpose of discussion I'll grant the point.
The conventional wisdom has always been that you have 25ish% of the electorate at the extremes and 50ish% in the middle and able to be persuaded, if that's true why wouldn't it make sense to run a candidate that will appeal to that 50% that can be persuaded? Or does it make sense to fight someone at one extreme with someone at the other.
So, my prediction. If the DFL can find a candidate that appeals to the middle, the circular firing squad will see Trump preparing for a second term.
This raises the questions, "Can the DFL actually do this? Is calling large numbers of that persuadable 50% names a good strategy to get their vote? Is casting your opponents as "evil" going to convince those in the middle to join your movement?"
I don't know. But as someone who's committed not to vote for Trump, it's going to be interesting to watch.
NOTE.
This scenario assumes that Trump isn't assassinated, defeated in the primary, or that a strong centrist movement doesn't field an attractive independent candidate,
3 comments:
If the 2020 democratic presidential campaign looks anything like Dan’s recent string of comments then y’all have already lost.
I find it hard to believe that anyone paying attention to that vast sea of independents and undecideds would risk a reversal of fortune by not supporting Trump for a second term. No one who is honest and paying attention can pretend he hasn't done many good things for American, and done them in the face of massive opposition and obstruction, even by members of his own party and also some right-wingers in the media.
I also find it hard to believe that all the moral failings that seemed so worthy of casting one's vote elsewhere are still being used as an excuse to do so again, especially when there's been no hint of sexual improprieties since he took the oath of office. Indeed, those things seem so insignificant now, especially in light of all the good he's gotten done.
I think much will depend on stupidity infecting the independents' thinking from the constant barrage of false racism accusations. Hopefully not, but one can never tell. The charge is so charged these days and even being loosely associated with the term "racist"...and many will accuse Trump voters of being so because they voted for him, just as they lie about Trump himself in that regard...and no one wants to be. I don't let liars dictate terms and I hope few voters will, but again, we'll see.
The latest approval ratings for Trump is up yet again. He's now at 48%, and that ain't bad. He polls better among blacks, hispanics, women and other minorities than he once did as well, so his main job is to shut up and let the Dems hang themselves. Other than that, so long as he does not step in a big steaming pile, he should be a lock.
Also, any primary attempts would doom the whole thing, and one of the lefty clowns could walk away with it and burn the place down, as Obama did. I hope no one allows anyone to last longer than tossing his hat in the ring. A united front, which must include all those who didn't vote for him the last time and whose excuses for that now no longer hold water, will carry the day.
I understand that position and can see why it’s attractive.
My point is that this is one of the most beatable presidents in history, and it’s likely that the DFL will lose to him again because they can’t find a candidate who’s more appealing than this herd, and because they’re so intent of alienating any but the obsessed true believers.
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