“I am a moderate Democrat, but I do not support abortion. I do not support same-sex marriage. I have people in my congregations who ask us, “How do we preach one thing on Sunday, but then campaign for people who are totally opposed to that?” … Do I, as an African-American pastor, lifelong Democrat, do I have a place in this party? Or is it all about health care, immigration, and these other things? What about the things that we have to deal with? Bade County has always been a reliable Democratic county. In 2018 they went Republican. Saginaw County and Genesee County, Flint is still in the middle of a water crisis. The people up here don’t want to vote for any Democrats. You don’t win Michigan elections without Genesee County, Saginaw County and Bay County.”
“But there are union members who are meeting with (GOP senatorial candidate) John James from the UAW. That’s unheard of! … What would be the narrative for this party to get the apathy reversed for those types of counties that you’re going to need to win this state?”
Pastor Chris Martin of the Cathedral of Faith in Flint, Michigan
I’ve posted on this before and I see more and more evidence that the DFL might be losing the 21,000,000 votes of pro life voters, as well as labor unions.
I’m not saying that they’ll switch parties in 2020, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of them stay home. With a candidate who will not likely be appealing to anyone hovering around the center of the political spectrum, it doesn’t seem wise to alienate large parts of the base as well.
Like the Amy ad says, “If Trump wins, it’ll be our fault.”
She’s right about that.
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4 comments:
It will be interesting to see how this thing plays out. No doubt, some who railed against Trump will punch his number. Others will play the foolish game of sitting out or voting third party due to their great distaste for the man, while doing either will be as good as casting a vote for him. Where have I heard this before?
All in all, I think most who don't feel welcome because they don't check all the boxes will still vote Democrat.
I agree that the most likely course in 2020 is that these folx will sit out, given the polarizing nature of the DFL candidates. But, I think that when you have constituencies whose goals contradict each other, then one will inevitably move on. I also think that the hostile unwillingness to even allow the pro life folks the tiniest voice in policy is a big problem. I will say that it's possible that the GOP can pick up some of the pro life vote the DFL scorns, but probably not all.
In this particular case, what happens if what was a narrow Trump victory in Michigan, gets larger in 2020? What happens if the DFL loses 3-4 of their seats in the MI codel? Or what happens of Peters loses.
I think the bottom line is that while we may be happy to suppose we'll pick up some support from these outcasts from the Dem party, it would be far wiser to expect we won't pick up any and continue to focus on drawing the independents for whom socialism is a non-starter. Then, these outcasts will be the icing on the cake.
Oh, I completely agree. I think it’s much more likely they’ll stay at home and the DFL finds out that telling more than 20,000,000 voters that they’re not wanted (or at least not welcome as full participants), isn’t a good plan.
Going forward the DFL will leave them further behind, and some will gravitate towards the GOP. I think that the labor union folks are going to have to choose between the habit of voting DFL, or having jobs. As long as the GOP continues to support their industries and the DFL tries to shut them down the choice will get pretty easy.
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