The NY prosecutor who has made a name for himself by charging felonies an misdemeanors, and announcing that he won't incarcerate people for crimes that aren't "serious", has scrounged up an indictment of Trump. There's an old legal saw that says that "A prosecutor can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich.", so the bar that's been cleared so far is pretty low. In the grand jury process that prosecutors aren't bound by the same evidentiary rules they are in court, and there is no opportunity for the defense to present exculpatory evidence or question the credibility of the prosecution's case. Again, the bar for indictment is pretty low. Let's also consider that NY is a city that voted 75%-25% against Trump i 2020, which would seem to suggest that NY grand jury members might be more inclined to indict based on political views. So, what's the point?
IF Trump has actually committed the crimes he's been charged with then he should be tried convicted and punished.
What I hope will happen is that Trump is so determined to clear his name that he will fight this tooth and nail, while the prosecution's goal of keeping him from mounting an effective 2024 campaign is achieved. Anyone who believes that there isn't a political component to these charges is simply deluded. As someone who hopes the GOP nominates someone other than Trump, this could help that happen.
What I'm afraid might happen is that Trump will force this to a speedy trial, and will either get acquitted or hand the jury. This puts him in the position of being able to run in 2024 as someone who's beeen victimized by a political prosecutor and who has vanquished said prosecutor in court.
I suspect that if this case against Trump were strong, that it wouldn't have taken years to finally get an indictment, which leads me to believe that Trump might not be convicted or that he'll be convicted of some minor offense. I also suspect that this has the potential to help Trump in 2024 by convincing some of the folks who had not supported him in 2020 to vote for him in sympathy.
Finally, since this case is essentially about an alleged violation of campaign finance laws, wouldn't it be wise to look at how other violations of campaign finance laws were handled when other candidates for federal office were found in violation? It seems like if (hypothetically) there was a DFL candidate for president who has violated campaign finance laws sometime in the last 20 years, that we could expect Trump to be judged in a similar fashion.
No matter what, this is going to be a cluster #### and it's likely to help trump as much as it hurts him. Much like my post where I talked bout how foolish it would be for the GOP to stoop the the DFL level and start politically motivated impeachment proceedings against Biden, I think that this prosecution is equally foolish and rife with potential unintended consequences.
Not that this is earth shattering analysis, but for the next few months we're going to see Trump haters making it sound like He's been convicted of mass murder or some such nonsense, and we're going to see the MAGA crowd screaming that he's done nothing wrong and the he's being persecuted. In other words, it'll be a mess until this is settled.