As we prepare for the Trump inauguration and continually focus on rehashing that completely legal and correct election results, I'd like to look forward a bit.
A week or so back Gallup released an updated poll which points out that Conservatives outnumber Liberals (36%-25%), and that the gap is growing wider.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/201152/conservative-liberal-gap-continues-narrow-tuesday.aspx
Then we look at what can only be called a landslide of conservative (more conservative) victories in both state legislatures and governors races.
It seems that we could reasonably draw a couple of conclusions from this data.
1. The folks who claim that the US is trending toward the left politically, are simply propagating more fake news.
2. That the conservative agenda is much more popular and persuasive that the news media wouyld have you believe.
So, as we look forward it seems clear that if the democrats would like to regain control of the presidency and the US legislature that there are some hurdles they must overcome. Clearly, one of the biggest is the need to convince a significant percentage of Trump voters to vote for whoever they trot out. Yes that's right, they need those ignorant, racist, sexist, stupid, misguided Trump voters to vote for their candidate in 4 years. That raises a couple of questions.
1. Is name calling and demonizing a significant percentage of the electorate a good strategy to get them to vote for your candidate in future elections?
2. If these people are all of the nasty things y'all have been saying about them, then why would you want such a bunch of "deplorables" to vote for your candidate anyway?
I wish them good luck trying to walk back all the nasty things that have been said.
Maybe they should look at the data and base their campaigns on that instead on name calling and denegration.
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re: the poll you cite...
What this poll shows is that liberal views have been trending upwards since 1992 (from 17% to 25%) while conservative views have stayed just about the same, moving slightly upwards (from 36% to 36%), and moderates have trended downwards (from 43% to 34%). That trend bodes well for liberals, not for conservatives or moderates. Of course, I expect it will trail off some eventually.
Thus, it is NOT "fake news" to say that liberals are trending upwards. It's reality, at least according to the poll you cite. It is, on the other hand, a fake claim to suggest that the US is not trending towards the left. That is literally what your poll shows.
as we look forward it seems clear that if the democrats would like to regain control of the presidency and the US legislature that there are some hurdles they must overcome.
Well, one will take care of itself. One major "hurdle" is that, as old white guys die off, we'll become even more progressive. Nothing to do on that front but let time take its toll on the dying form of conservatism as it exists.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/168125/young-americans-affinity-democratic-party-grown.aspx
~Dan
re: "moving slightly upwards..." That's a typo, obviously. 36% to 36% is not trending upwards. It's a flatline.
If those rates continue (and with a Trump disaster in the office, seems likely to me... plus, you know, more old white guys dying off), then in 20 years, this liberal trend will make liberals and conservatives about equal and another 20 years, liberals will greatly overtake conservatives.
If this trend that you cite (then deny!) continues.
~Dan
Actually the trend you see is that there are some shifts between moderate and liberal, but that there are still 11% more conservatives than liberals.
I like how you avoid the questions asked and the fact that it's not just about Trump. If anything the conservative advantage in state government is even more pronounced than in the federal government.
But you just keep operating on wishes and assumptions, and ignore (or magically interpret) the data all while assuming the worst.
You and Maxine Waters, so blinded by antipathy that you won't even wait until after the inaugural to start in.
Before you start, I disagreed with what McConnell said when P-BO was elected. In a political sense it certainly is sensible that you want the other parties policies not to fare particularly well, but to refuse to even talk with the incoming president seems just petty.
I much prefer Tom Hanks attitude (Which I agree with) "I hope that Trump does so well as president that I'll vote for him in four years.". That seems so much more reasonable than predicting a "disaster".
YOU said, "The folks who claim that the US is trending toward the left politically, are simply propagating more fake news."
Reality is, the source you cite specifically says that the US is trending towards the left politically. It does not say that there are MORE self-identified liberals, just that there is literally a trend towards more liberals.
Do you recognize that reality and that, as a point of fact, your claim was a mistaken/false claim? Can you agree with reality that the US IS, in fact, trending more liberal, according to the data you cited?
You began with a false claim/starting point. If you can admit you made a mistake and reality is the opposite of what you said (maybe you intended something else, but what you said), then we can talk about the rest of your opinion.
But if you don't recognize reality for reality, I have no good reason to keep talking with you, do I?
But to your questions:
1. Is name calling and demonizing a significant percentage of the electorate a good strategy to get them to vote for your candidate in future elections?
If the president elect is a pig - a man who admits to and laughs about his "power" to walk in and ogle naked teenagers, a man who admits groping women, who admits and laughs about affairs with married women, who mocks the disabled - and an unrepentant pig, then calling him a pig is appropriate. Calling out people who vote for/support him is appropriate.
Do you disagree?
2. If these people are all of the nasty things y'all have been saying about them, then why would you want such a bunch of "deplorables" to vote for your candidate anyway?
We point out racism and sexism and sexual assault to shine light on evil, hoping to scatter those deplorables (ie, those who engage in racist, sexually predatory and/or sexist behavior) into hiding and shaming them, because such behavior is harmful and wrong. We hope, therefore, that the (hopefully majority) of people who voted for Trump will recognize the evil that they've voted for as evil and experience regret.
Is this a good method for dealing with Trump supporters? I don't know. Thus far, it hasn't succeeded in stopping Trump outright, but standing against harmful behavior does not always lead to successfully stopping it... but it should be stood against, nonetheless, seems to me.
It certainly is something that the majority of the nation (if voting numbers can be extrapolated out) is trying to sort through right now.
And now, I will entertain an apology for your suggestion that I'm the one "magically interpreting" data, when you just made a claim that is 100% opposite of what your data you cited said.
Demonstrate that you're operating in a place of understanding reality.
~Dan
No time now to get into details, but how can the trend be toward the left when all across the nation, states have picked up so many more GOP seats than Dem? More GOP governors? Why is it that the largest poll is so often ignored by the left?
And why so racist to believe that the death of "old white guys" will turn the tide? Is that all the left has now? To believe that all those who support a different (and more reasonable, effective and moral) ideology must die in order to regain power? How incredibly hateful and desperate!!
Fact: The survey cited shows a clear and steady increase in liberals.
Do you agree with reality, Marshall?
Fact: Liberals can increase (for instance, in the major cities) and conservatives can still control smaller areas/states across the US. Also, at this point, more people are still identifying as conservatives, so it really depends on the moderates and which way they are swayed in elections. So your first question makes no sense.
Do you understand that reality, Marshall?
Fact: Noting the reality that old white guys tend to be more conservative and the stronghold of conservatism is not racism, it's noting reality. Noting that as old white guys die off (that is, the bulk of the mass of conservatism), that conservatism will decrease is not racism, it's just noting reality.
Do you understand that reality, Marshall?
~Dan
So I guess that means you think it's politically wise to call people who voted for Trump whatever vile names spring to mind without giving any thought to whether or not the individuals in question are actually racist or sexist. Just lump 'em all in together and paint with a really broad brush. I hope that works for you.
The trend toward the left is from moderates who already voted left, not from actually changing anyone's mind.
MA
Don't you understand that as long as the ignorant old white redneck a man out in the country all die off that it simply opens the door for all of the young urban hipster elitists to take over and run the country. Clearly if one looks at the electoral map as well as the make up of the various state houses and governors mansion's the conservative movement in the United States must be doing something much better than the Democrats. But as long as they can come up with excuses that don't Involve the poor quality of their candidates they will be happy.
Oh, the fake news claim is that there is an equal balance between conservatives and liberals.
But please keep up the broad brush name calling strategy I think it'll be awesome.
I guess that means you think it's politically wise to call people who voted for Trump whatever vile names spring to mind without giving any thought to whether or not the individuals in question are actually racist or sexist.
Yes, Craig, that is exactly what I meant. You can tell by the way I never said anything of the sort and that it is patently ridiculous assumption to make if you've read what I've written over the years as it is entirely opposite of my views on interaction.
Please, be serious.
the fake news claim is that there is an equal balance between conservatives and liberals.
Who made that claim? It's not in the article you cited. Or anything I've read.
Again, do you understand that the article YOU cited says the opposite of what you claim?
Do you understand reality? I ask because you keep asserting things that are not in reality so far as I can see in the words written that you're citing.
~Dan
Hey you're the one who said it's appropriate to call out people who voted for Trump for whatever you perceive their failings to be.
Maybe you just don't pay attention to the media. The media pundit conventional wisdom is that it's 40% liberal, 40% conservative and it's about persuading the 20%.
As for your assumptions about future trends, that's why they do this tracking poll to get actual accurate data instead of speculating.
Personally I don't think it's a good move to call 40 odd % of the electorate deplorable or racist or whatever, but that's just me and I try to deal with individuals as much as I can rather than lumping people in groups.
So, that's a no, you don't understand or agree with reality?
Noted.
Good luck and happy new year.
~Dan
I agree that the reality is that your last comment makes no sense. I also agree with the reality that defaming a significant portion of the electorate is an ineffective way to persuade.
But if you're ok with that then I encourage you and your tribe to keep it up.
Can I assume that you have a problem with P-BO's blatant stupid lie from last night?
The reality that I understand is that the GOP picked up more legislative seats and governors. That's based on a far larger sampling than any poll you've cited to suggest a growing pool of leftist braindead. You seem more than willing to ignore that larger sampling as irrelevant or insignificant. More denial about reality, such as that Hillary was a poor candidate that couldn't drum up greater support than a guy like Donald Trump.
Now I will say this: the increase in GOP held seats across the nation, which actually began in the previous elections since 2012, may indeed be more a matter of buyer remorse on the part of independent voters suckered in by the thrill of electing a non-white candidate, despite a dearth of accomplishment in any previously held position and support for failed leftist policies by that candidate. I know of a few who have a history of voting Dem exclusively who regret having supported Obama and couldn't bring themselves to vote for Clinton. Indeed, it is similar to those independents who voted for Obama in '08 rather than for McCain, who they saw as an extension of GW Bush.
Nonetheless, the last election is a poll with far more significance than any you've cited. It suggests a trend to the right, even if just for this election season.
As to "old white dudes", I would not disagree that most conservatives are older. Experience teaches many that conservative principles really are the gold standard the rest of us conservatives say they are. Only the stupidest ignore reality and remain leftist if they started out that way. And as experience teaches, it will continue to teach others. The young, as well as the immature of all ages, act on emotion, which compels your very peculiar disregard of reality. The immature, like yourself, resist the influence of reality.
Emotion drives all of us. Maturity is putting emotion aside long enough to examine what played on our emotions and then determine how best to deal with that. The mature people are those, including "old white dudes", who are the right-wing.
MA, your point about age/experience is well taken. Folks like Dan assume that every liberal 18 year old will continue to be as or more liberal at 35.
It's also interesting that on some issues (abortion for one) the younger generations are more conservative than our generation. I suspect this is because if things like data and science, one would think that as they gain experience and wisdom that they might test other liberal orthodoxies against reality and respond similarly.
It certainly is my hope that they do so. I believe we have some obligation to encourage them to test everything, but certainly liberal orthodoxies.
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