I've noticed a trend. I've noticed it more from the left than the right, but I suspect that it's probably prevalent on both sides.
This trend is that when asked for proof of a particular claim, the response is to point to polling data. Now, I realize that there is some scientific method behind the creation of polls and the interpretation of polls, but also that they aren't free of bias. Also, as we saw around the 2016 election, they aren't necessarily right.
So, what are we to make of this poll?
https://thepoliticalinsider.com/gallup-poll-race-relations-see-double-digit-increase-since-trump-entered-white-house/
It pretty clearly goes against the prevailing narratives, and what the media tells us. But, what if the narratives and the media are wrong and the polling data is correct? I suspect the knee jerk response would be to dismiss the poll or the polling organization, but it's Gallup, which historically has been highly regarded. But, if it is possible to dismiss this poll, doesn't that open the door to dismiss any and all Gallup polls in the future?
Finally, what's interesting to me, is the numbers. Even if Gallup is off by a percentage point or two, the trend suggested by the numbers is so contrary to the popular narrative that it deserves more study.
Although I haven't written much about it, this is similar to the recent data that suggests that for the first time since it's been possible to track, that we have reached a tipping point and the majority of the world population is not classified as poor. Assuming that these two things are True, why aren't we seeing celebrations?
As with many things, I have some thoughts, but I'll leave them out of it for now.
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Frankly, I can't think of an instance where any center-right argument relies upon polling data, except in those cases where the question is public opinion. We've seen, for example, a certain troll suggest that his gun control suggestions are worthy and uses polling in an attempt to persuade, rather than any real evidence that any of the proposals was ever proven to work. Maybe someone can think of a right-wing example. I can't.
I couldn’t either, but I suspect there’s something out there. Unlike Dan, I rarely take absolute positions on things like this. It’s too easy to prove wrong, so I generally leave my options open to avoid getting bogged down in digressions.
As to your point, the poll you cite CAN be used not so much as proof, but certainly as evidence of a claim, in this case that race relations are improving under Trump. The article cites Rush Limbaugh's comments of three other polls showing the same trend. Thus, one can say that four separate polls all indicating the same trend stands as proof more than any single poll can. The reason why it can be put forth as proof, is because the claim is one of subjective opinion in the first place. Race relations is a matter of perception, and perception by individuals. Ask ten minorities how they feel about the state of race relations today, and if they all say it's better than ever, that unanimous response would suggest truth. Ask ten more, and if they respond in kind, the truth claim is more solid than with only the first ten. The more people asked, the better the claim is so long as the majority continues to affirm things are better. Thus, in this case, using the polling data to make the case that race relations are improving is worthwhile and reliable. BUT, it must be acknowledged that it is evidence...as overwhelming as it may be...and not necessarily proof, which is not the same thing.
Art,
What I’m talking about is when a single poll is offered as “proof” of someone’s truth claim.
More so, is polls are “proof” then how do you deal with polls that prove you wrong? Much like the pet who believe the pre election polls over the actual election results.
Clearly, polls are valuable to show trends. Further, even if the 14% figure is wrong, (what if it’s really 10% or 18%), it doesn’t invalidate the conclusion or the trend.
Virtually all polls are about subjective perception, yet if people’s subjective perceptions are so at odds with the political and media narrative what might that tell us about the reality of race relations? What does it tell us about the subjective perceptions of those pushing the opposing narrative?
Anyway this isn’t so much about this poll as about using polls as proof when one makes claims of objective truth.
When this is the first part of an AP news story, it doesn’t seem good for the DFL.
“When it comes to the 2020 presidential election, Democrats are nervous wrecks and Republican excitement has grown.
That’s according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research as Americans look ahead to a high-stakes election that is 10 months away but still very much top of mind. While emotions could change in the coming months, the findings give Democrats one more worry to add to the list: Will anxiety or enthusiasm be a bigger motivator come November?
On the verge of the first votes being cast in a primary contest with no clear leader, 66% of Democrats report anxiety about the election, compared with 46% of Republicans. Democrats are also more likely to feel frustration. Republicans, meanwhile, are more likely than Democrats to declare excitement about the race, and the share of enthusiastic Republicans appears to be rising.”
Clearly there are some folx that are analogous to the Japanese soldiers who didn’t hear about the end of the war, and maintained their fanaticism.
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