I was re watching the Super Bowl, on the eve of the drive for the 3 peat, and realized how many chances SF had to win the game in regulation. Starting in the 3Q, the missed PAT was the biggest. Had that been made it's a 4 point lead, and KC would have had to significantly change to a riskier play calling approach, and wouldn't have been able to trade FG's to stay in the game.
It's interesting to see what some perspective and time does.
We've got real football coming soon. A few thoughts.
The NFL schedulers were very kind to the Jets and the Bears. Front loading their schedules to increase their chances of early success is great for the Rogers comeback and the Williams rookie year.
The NFC North should be very competitive with 3 teams that should be good, and Min which might be better than we think.
KC has a tough schedule early, but has the opportunity to get tie breakers on Bal, and Cin in Sept.
Buffalo, and Baltimore should be down this year due to losses of talent and coaching.
Houston should be interesting to watch, no one seems concerned about any regression or about how Diggs will impact the offense if he doesn't get his touches.
The Chargers and Raiders should be below average, and the Broncos might be a surprise.
Ultimately the AFC is going to be interesting as many of the good teams should be worse, and the NFC should be better for the first time in a while.
No matter what, it'll be fun.
FYI, I like how the NFL front loads easier schedules for teams that have good story lines, they ultimately have to play the harder games, but to build up wins early helps. Unlike the WNBA which screwed the Fever/Clark by scheduling them against the best teams from last year early. Like it or not, good story lines are good for the leagues.
4 comments:
I'm geeked about the season given the Bears' many improvements. While their undefeated pre-season doesn't guarantee they'll win a single regular season game, they actually looked like a football team with a chance this time around. The personnel additions, as well as the offensive coordinator addition has produced what appears to be an entirely different team from what we've suffered in recent years. The weirdest thing about their schedule is the lack of division games until the second half of the season. I don't think I've ever seen that since I began to watch football regularly somewhere in my teen years.
As to the schedule in general, has it not been the case...especially when talk of parity in the league became a greater priority...that loser teams got easier schedules against other loser teams, while the winners played winners? I think "story lines" is something which the networks push regardless of which team plays whom...which is a league issue. Isn't that how it's always worked?
I think the Bears are in a pretty good spot this year, presuming Williams lives up to his pick. I am convinced that the NFL intentionally back loaded the Bears schedule to give them the best chance to be relevant late in the season. Depending on how they start, they could be pretty bad in the last half and still have a shot at the playoffs. Given the Williams hype, it's not a bad plan.
Schedules have always been slotted based on the record the previous year, but that only affects a few games. The division games always stay the same and each team also plays the same 4 teams from another division. That leaves 5-6 games to strengthen or weaken the schedule. In the Bears case, it's more about front loading the easier games to get them off to a good start. They still have to play the tougher opponents, but it's later in the year which should help the Bears. Although it also raises the potential for the Bears to benefit (or otherwise) from injuries to the other teams.
Look at the Jets schedule which has way more prime time games than their record would suggest, because Rodgers comeback should be a good story line. If he gets hurt again, it's going to backfire big time. I think that the league setting up some story lines by how they schedule (as long as they aren't changing the formula) makes sense.
That's some creative speculation. The networks might wish to put national games on according to a story line, but I don't think the league cares as much. I guess it would depend upon just how the various TV contracts are set up. It was my supposition that the league simply gets a big piece of all TV contracts, particularly network broadcasts which are nationally shown. But in the end, I have no idea.
I'd love to hear someone explain how the Bears' schedule was determined to be as it is. I've never seen such a thing before and I'm really curious about it.
It's not like it's not obvious that the NFL doesn't want to push certain story lines throughout the season. It's clearly a good thing for the NFL if Chicago has success. It's a big market, Williams is a hot commodity, and they need an NFC QB star to balance out the Mahomes/Burrow/Lamar/Allen/Stroud contingent in the AFC. Same thing with the Jets. Rodgers "come back" plus big market is a good story.
Further, it's not about who plays who, that's pretty set, it's about when they play. It's about giving Chicago momentum before they play anyone tough, and about getting the Jets all over prime time when their record doesn't warrant it.
Personally, I think that it makes sense for the NFL to do this, as long as it's not actually giving someone an easier overall schedule.
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