As we enter December, the NFL standings are becoming more clear. At the top of the standings, it's all about the 1seed and the bye in the playoffs. Although the 2 seed an home field through the majority of the playoffs isn't bad, especially if the 1 gets knocked off. But, that'll get decided on the field.
What I find more interesting is the other end of the standings. The stakes might actually be higher for these teams, especially long term. It seems like draft order, salary cap, and coaching are the priorities for these teams.
AFC
3 win teams- Browns, Jets, Titans, Patriots,
2 win teams- Raiders, Jaguars
NFC
3 win team- Panthers
2 win team- Giants
Of those teams the Browns, Jets, Titans, Raiders, and Giants absolutely need a quarterback and really don't have much to choose from in the draft. The Patriots, Jaguars, and Panthers are in a position to add high end talent, or trade back to load up on additional picks to build around their franchise quarterback. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the draft and free agency, especially for a team like the Jaguars who've already paid their quarterback big money.
I'll add three more teams that will be interesting to watch in the off season.
The Saints are in salary cap hell, and aren't bad enough to even sniff one of the prime quarterbacks to build around.
The Bears have some really nice talent, and a potential generational quarterback on a rookie contract, but also have big holes to fill. It'll be interesting to see where they draft, and whether or not they trade their #1 for quantity or use it on left tackle.
The 49ers seem to be in a really difficult situation. Purdy is due for a huge payday, but really hasn't justified the $50 million plus that he "should" be getting. CMC is back to being injury prone, and expensive. They'll be looking to replace Trent Williams soon as well as potential big receiver contracts. So far, it looks like their best move is to sign Purdy to a short term deal that recognizes what he's done over the last couple of years for $35 million or so, and then stock up around him. Obviously, it'll depend on how much Purdy wants to help the team by taking a "smaller" contract, and whether or not there's a free agent market for him.
Personally, I think that San Francisco and Chicago are the two teams that will be the most interesting to watch in the off season.
8 comments:
The coaching situation for the Bears is especially interesting. Thomas Brown being elevated to interim Head Coach is itself an interesting situation. He's certainly shown some coaching talent and play calling ability, but now he's tasked with trying to do something with the remaining really tough last five games. Since Flus was running the D, what's Brown going to do there? But to make him HC next year might be too early for a guy like him. I don't know. I ain't that wise about such things.
There's constant talk about Detroit's Ben Johnson, and the most recent indicates, yes...he would indeed be interested with developing Caleb Williams, especially with the talent around him now. But the talent doesn't truly exist on that offensive offensive line, and Poles needs to put his draft/trade focus there for at least two players in order to give the kid a chance to survive. I think at this point he's been sacked more than anyone in the league this year.
Anyway...
I agree that the choice of coach will be important, and that they either need an offensive head coach or a defensive head coach who'll brig in a great OC and give them free reign. Honestly, I'm not that up on hot young OCs who are ready for a HC job so it's not something I'm that interested in. Obviously, there are probably several who would be good options.
I agree that they probably need to use their (top 10?) 1st round pick on a LT (the only OL position IMO that's worth a high first), or trade down a bit for OL and extra picks. Is it worth it to lose enough to move up in the draft? It'll be hard to get too high unless all of the really bad teams start winning. If they can draft immediate OL help that would be the preferred method. Depending on cap space, it probably makes more sense to draft a LT in the first round, and sign a free agent to fill in for the short term. Picking up depth in the draft is also a good idea.
Chicago is an interesting case study this year. They clearly have talent, and Caleb could end up being great, but they need the right head coach and a home run draft/FA class to capitalize on Caleb's rookie contract. Given their history, it's entirely possible that ownership and the front office will screw this up and waste a talented quarterback. It'll be interesting to watch either way.
I hear that Poles pressured McCaskey to cut Flus loose and that he and this guy Warren now have liberty to act without McCaskey butting in. I think Poles has done a better than average job in finding talent. He had two busts which he ejected fairly quickly, which shows he's not afraid to admit and correct his mistakes. With the talent we have, we're this [ ] close to being dangerous, and coaching plus the O-line is our biggest holes right now. I agree LT is job one. I'd prefer trying to steal a proven commodity from another teams if a good one is available, and then looking to the draft for a backup.
As to the coach, I just want someone who will light a fire under the players, give them confidence that they have a leader to follow who will get them to the promised land. Morale is crap right now, boosted just a bit by releasing Flus.
It seems clear from someone who isn't engaged much with the Bears that the organizational culture has been pretty bad, and if that is changing it obviously should help.
The problem with finding a free agent LT is availability and cost. They're scarce and expensive. Look at the Chiefs right now. The rookie might be good, but he was a project and shouldn't be playing much now anyway. But finding a LT in the draft is almost always the preferred option. It looks like there are 3 LT in the top 25 free agents this coming year, and I can't believe all three will even make it to free agency.
Finding a coach/coordinator that will design an offense that maximizes William's skills and those of the weapons they have seems like job one. Year after year we see defensive minded head coaches squander quarterback talent, and it would be a shame to see that happen to Williams.
A defensive minded coach who delegates offensive play calling to another is fine. That's what Flus did with three different guys, ending with the now interim HC. Conversely, Ditka delegated defensive play calling to Buddy Ryan. That clearly worked well. The problem now is that Flus still had authority to make calls which resulted in him not making good ones at crucial times.
I think I mentioned this earlier, but it certainly can work as long as the OC has a lot of control regarding how the offense works. Houston seems to be doing this well, but in other places the defensive minded head coaches tend to be more conservative when it comes to offense.
So my Bears looked especially crappy against the '49ers, and I couldn't be more pissed. However, there really was no reason to expect a major turnaround simply because they fired Eberflus. But the life of our rookie QB is still endangered and I'm more certain than ever that I won't see a win for the rest of the season. So sad for Thomas Brown that he has to find a way to make this shit work. I insist it still comes down to an incredibly crappy O-line primarily. At the same time, this defense, which looked to be really strong initially, seems to be lacking as well. That's about as detailed as I care to get at this point, and hope they can surprise at least once before it's all mercifully over once and for all for this year.
I have a few friends who, despite being born and raised in the greater Chicago area, have placed their support for teams not called the Chicago Bears. One guy named Jim moved to Michigan years ago and is now a Lions fan. Another named Bob still live in Cook County, IL but has forever been a Steelers fan (going back to the Terry Bradshaw years). I've been in SC for over three years now, and I'll die a Bears/Bulls/Cubs/White Sox (yeah, both teams)/ Blackhawks guy. That wouldn't change if SC had any professional teams at all. Right now, sports-wise, life really sucks, but I still think good times are ahead for the Bears. I don't need the Super Bowl next year, but I do want to see a decidedly winning season. The kid's breaking all sorts of rookie records in a losing year, with most sacks unfortunately being one of them. I sat through crap until Michael Jordan came along. I actually like the struggle, but want to see it mean glory at some point. My father-in-law passed away just prior to the Cubs winning the World Series, and we placed Cub paraphernalia at his grave site when they finally did. (The Mrs. wept)
I expected the Bulls to tank this year, and they seem to be winning just enough to F that up. But I expected more from the Bears, even though I didn't expect a Super Bowl.
It's really hard being a Chicago sports fan these days. When they excel, they can't sustain, and then they go back to sucking for long periods.
Woe is me.
In all seriousness, what did you expect? SF is having a down year, but they still have some talent and are on the fringe of a playoff berth. To be fair, O line talent is thin throughout the league. Some of is comes down to scheming extra protection, and some of it is just bad play. I'm getting tired of watching Mahomes get beat up every week.
I'm not sure what it'll do, but at this point playing for a higher draft pick seems like the smarter move to me.
When we moved to the people's republic, we stayed loyal to the teams we'd supported when we lived in KC. It's been a pretty good run since we've been up here with multiple trips to the World Series, SB, and MLS championships in the last 15 years. Since I'm not a huge NHL/NBA guy, I'm not invested in either the Wolves or the Wild. If they make a deep run, I'll pay attention, but otherwise nah. I guess winning a few WNBA titles is something, but I've never been to a game, and probably won't. It might be interesting to go when Clark is in town just to see what all the fuss is about, same thing with Buekers next year to a degree. Especially since Paige went to HS with one of my kids and I saw her play some in HS.
I get it, watching your teams suck isn't fun. Ask Vikings fans, they'll tell you all about it. Hell, KC was really bad for a really long time in football, and MLB rules are killing small market teams, so I feel your pain.
We had high hopes for K-State this year in both FB and MBB and it's been less than expected in both (MBB is still early). I guess it's good that the Panthers suck.
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